Preseason Rankings
Big West
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 UC Irvine 42.4%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 4 +5.3      +1.1 132 +4.3 53 67.2 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 UC Davis 20.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 5 +2.6      +0.4 154 +2.2 106 65.8 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 Cal St. Fullerton 16.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 6 +1.4      +0.3 156 +1.1 131 71.5 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 UC Santa Barbara 9.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 7 -0.8      +0.2 161 -1.0 201 66.5 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
189 Long Beach St. 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 7 -1.2      0.0 170 -1.2 207 77.3 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 Hawaii 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -2.3      -3.1 260 +0.8 143 68.4 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 UC Riverside 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -6.4      -5.7 317 -0.6 190 69.4 173 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 Cal Poly 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -9.3      -4.6 293 -4.7 322 65.8 263 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 Cal St. Northridge 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 26 3 - 13 -14.0      -7.6 340 -6.4 340 64.2 302 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UC Irvine 2.2 47.0 21.8 13.7 8.3 4.9 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1
UC Davis 3.0 25.1 22.7 18.2 13.3 9.0 6.3 3.9 1.3 0.3
Cal St. Fullerton 3.4 19.5 20.9 17.5 14.5 11.9 8.3 4.8 2.1 0.4
UC Santa Barbara 4.1 11.5 14.2 16.5 16.8 14.9 12.6 8.2 4.3 1.1
Long Beach St. 4.3 9.5 13.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 13.5 9.9 5.0 1.5
Hawaii 4.7 6.9 10.7 12.8 15.4 16.8 16.4 12.3 6.7 2.0
UC Riverside 6.1 1.8 3.8 6.2 9.3 12.7 17.4 22.4 18.6 7.9
Cal Poly 7.0 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.9 8.5 13.8 21.3 29.2 17.7
Cal St. Northridge 8.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 5.3 11.7 25.2 53.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.6 6.6 9.7 12.6 15.1 16.3 14.7 10.8 5.1
UC Davis 11 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.6 8.2 10.8 13.6 14.8 13.5 12.0 8.3 4.5 1.4
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.3 10.6 12.0 13.2 14.3 12.3 9.7 6.1 3.2 0.9
UC Santa Barbara 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.2 5.8 7.7 10.2 12.5 14.2 12.7 11.3 8.9 5.7 3.1 1.4 0.5
Long Beach St. 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.6 9.1 11.5 12.7 12.6 13.2 11.0 7.7 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.2
Hawaii 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 7.9 11.0 12.8 13.5 13.1 10.6 8.6 6.3 3.7 1.7 0.7 0.1
UC Riverside 6 - 10 0.5 2.4 5.9 9.7 12.1 14.1 13.5 12.3 9.9 8.1 5.4 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 11 2.3 6.8 11.5 15.1 15.5 14.0 11.7 9.0 6.4 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 3 - 13 12.1 20.4 20.8 16.8 11.9 8.0 4.6 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 47.0% 34.9 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 25.1% 16.7 6.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 19.5% 12.6 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 11.5% 6.8 3.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 9.5% 5.5 3.0 0.7 0.3
Hawaii 6.9% 4.0 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 1.8% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 42.4% 40.5% 1.9% 14   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 4.3 8.7 9.5 7.4 4.4 2.5 57.6 3.2%
UC Davis 20.1% 19.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.0 79.9 0.7%
Cal St. Fullerton 16.1% 15.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.1 83.9 0.6%
UC Santa Barbara 9.5% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.6 90.5 0.1%
Long Beach St. 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 92.1 0.1%
Hawaii 5.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.7 94.2 0.1%
UC Riverside 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 42.4% 1.7% 41.5% 10.4% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Davis 20.1% 2.3% 19.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 16.1% 1.7% 15.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.5% 1.4% 8.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 7.9% 1.5% 7.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 5.8% 1.1% 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.2 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 94.1 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 18.3% 0.2 81.7 18.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7 0.0
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1